In 2026, Sony is expected to sell over 13 million PS5s against just 2.5 million Xbox consoles

According to a forecast from S&P Global Market Intelligence, via its Kagan service, published in July 2026, Sony would ship roughly 13.2 million PS5 units worldwide in 2026, against only 2.5 million Xbox Series X|S units for Microsoft. For Sony, that's already a decline from 2025's 17.1 million units (about -15%). For Xbox, the drop is far steeper: 2.5 million versus 3.2 million in 2025, with quarterly shipments falling below 500,000 units in Q1 2026, a first since the console launched in 2020.

A broadly declining console market

This isn't just a bad year for Xbox: Kagan forecasts the global console market falling 19.5% in 2026, to roughly 33.9 million units across all brands, following a 2025 boosted by the Switch 2 launch (+13.5%, 42.1 million units). The reasons cited by analyst Neil Barbour: rising hardware prices, a thin slate of major releases in the near term, and an ongoing component shortage.

Memory is the real bottleneck

The common thread behind this decline is the spike in memory and storage prices, driven in part by AI data center demand. Sony itself confirms this link in its own financial guidance (FY2025 results): the group expects a 6% drop in hardware sales for its games and network segment in FY2026, stating it plans to "base PS5 hardware sales on the volume of memory we can procure at reasonable prices." Sony already raised prices across the entire PS5 lineup in April 2026 (from $600 to $900 depending on the model), and Kagan notes that the Xbox Series X now sits roughly $100 above a standard PS5.

Numbers to handle with care

These figures remain estimates from an analyst firm, not officially reported sales from Sony or Microsoft. Neither manufacturer still publishes detailed quarterly hardware sales figures. Also worth noting: adding up the three platforms in the report as covered by the press (Switch 2, PS5, Xbox) doesn't exactly match the announced 33.9 million market total, a discrepancy not explained in the publicly available coverage. Treat this as a directional order of magnitude, not an exact-to-the-million figure.

What comes next?

Kagan sees 2027 as the market's low point (around 27.1 million units), before a gradual recovery to 37.4 million by 2030, driven by a new console generation once the component crisis eases. The firm points to a PS5 successor around 2028, priced between $600 and $800. For Xbox, the future beyond 2026 largely hinges on Project Helix, Microsoft's next console, whose internal price projection is itself reportedly between $1,200 and $1,800 per a separate Fortune report.

Sources

• GameLuster: S&P Kagan: Xbox Nears Zero as PS5 and Switch 2 Drag Console Market to 33.9M in 2026
• Shacknews: Sony forecasts decline in FY26 PS5 hardware sales due to memory price headwinds

The bottom line

S&P Global Market Intelligence's (Kagan) forecasts put Sony well ahead of Microsoft on hardware in 2026 (13.2 million PS5 units versus 2.5 million Xbox Series units), in a console market broadly declining because of the memory price crisis, independently confirmed by Sony's own financial guidance. These are analyst estimates, not official sales figures, best read as a trend rather than an exact measurement.